eleventh version

Makefile

@@ -45,6 +45,7 @@ build: cache
 	$(GO) build -trimpath -o bin/bot ./cmd/bot
 	$(GO) build -trimpath -o bin/migrate ./cmd/migrate
 	$(GO) build -trimpath -o bin/backtest ./cmd/backtest
+	$(GO) build -trimpath -o bin/mode-days ./cmd/mode-days
 
 backtest: cache
 	$(GO) run ./cmd/backtest -candles "$${BT_CANDLES:?set BT_CANDLES}"

README.md

@@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ APP_MODE=backtest go run ./cmd/bot
 | `RISK_RISK_BUDGET_PER_INSTRUMENT_PCT` | доля equity | `0.005` | рекомендуется `> 0` | Риск-бюджет на инструмент, используется вместе с оценкой неблагоприятного overnight-движения. Больше - крупнее позиции при прочих равных. |
 | `RISK_MIN_ORDER_NOTIONAL_RUB` | сумма в рублях | `1000` | `> 0` включает минимум; `<= 0` фактически отключает | Минимальный notional заявки. Если рассчитанная позиция меньше, сигнал отклоняется по sizing. |
 
-Если средний `realized_edge_bps - expected_net_edge_bps` по последним 20 закрытым сделкам ниже `-10 bps`, scheduler пишет `risk_event(WARN, size_reduction_rule_triggered)` и до восстановления качества режет sizing до `0.5x`.
+Если средний `realized_edge_bps - expected_net_edge_bps` по последним 20 закрытым сделкам ниже `-10 bps`, scheduler пишет `risk_event(WARN, size_reduction_rule_triggered)` и до восстановления качества режет sizing до `0.5x`. Если два таких окна по 20 сделок идут подряд в `live_trade`, бот автоматически переключает persisted/runtime mode в `live_readonly` и блокирует новые брокерские заявки до ручного вмешательства.
 
 ### LIQ
 
@@ -188,6 +188,7 @@ make race
 make build
 go run ./cmd/migrate -direction=up
 go run ./cmd/migrate up
+go run ./cmd/mode-days -check=true
 go run ./cmd/backtest -candles candles.csv -out ./backtest_out
 go run ./cmd/backtest -candles candles.csv -minute-candles minute.csv -use-minute-model -out ./backtest_out
 go run ./cmd/bot -mode=paper
@@ -199,11 +200,13 @@ go run ./cmd/bot -healthcheck
 Backtest CSV columns:
 
 ```csv
-instrument_uid,trade_date,open,high,low,close,volume_lots
+instrument_uid,trade_date,open,high,low,close,volume_lots,lot,min_price_increment
-TRUR,2024-01-09,100,101,99,100.5,10000
+TRUR,2024-01-09,100,101,99,100.5,10000,10,0.01
 ```
 
-Для minute-модели используется тот же формат, но `trade_date` может быть timestamp (`2024-01-09T18:25:00Z` или `2024-01-09 18:25:00`).
+Для minute-модели используется тот же формат, но `trade_date` может быть timestamp (`2024-01-09T18:25:00Z` или `2024-01-09 18:25:00`). CLI backtest требует `lot` и `min_price_increment` для каждого `instrument_uid`; metadata можно дать в daily CSV или в minute CSV.
+
+`cmd/mode-days` считает distinct-дни по `system_state_history` и проверяет пороги `live_readonly >= 20`, `paper >= 20`, `sandbox >= 10`. История пишется после миграции `0010`; дни до неё автоматически восстановить нельзя, потому что старая схема хранила только текущий `system_state`.
 
 `ClientOrderID` детерминирован по `(date, instrument_uid, side, attempt)`, укладывается в лимит T-Invest `order_id <= 36` и содержит SHA-256 suffix. При ручных массовых перезапусках с теми же параметрами id остаётся тем же, что намеренно подавляет дубли.
 

cmd/backtest/main.go

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import (
 	"flag"
 	"fmt"
 	"os"
+	"strings"
 
 	"github.com/shopspring/decimal"
 
@@ -72,6 +73,9 @@ func run() error {
 	if *useMinuteModel && len(minuteCandles) == 0 {
 		return fmt.Errorf("-minute-candles is required when -use-minute-model=true")
 	}
+	if err := validateMetadata(candles, metadata); err != nil {
+		return err
+	}
 	entry, err := decimal.NewFromString(*entrySlip)
 	if err != nil {
 		return fmt.Errorf("entry slippage: %w", err)
@@ -149,6 +153,20 @@ func run() error {
 	return nil
 }
 
+func validateMetadata(candles map[string][]domain.Candle, metadata map[string]backtest.InstrumentMetadata) error {
+	var missing []string
+	for instrumentUID := range candles {
+		meta := metadata[instrumentUID]
+		if meta.Lot <= 0 || !meta.MinPriceIncrement.IsPositive() {
+			missing = append(missing, instrumentUID)
+		}
+	}
+	if len(missing) > 0 {
+		return fmt.Errorf("missing lot/min_price_increment metadata for instruments: %s", strings.Join(missing, ","))
+	}
+	return nil
+}
+
 func mergeMetadata(dst, src map[string]backtest.InstrumentMetadata) {
 	for uid, meta := range src {
 		current := dst[uid]

cmd/backtest/main_test.go

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+package main
+
+import (
+	"strings"
+	"testing"
+	"time"
+
+	"github.com/shopspring/decimal"
+
+	"overnight-trading-bot/internal/backtest"
+	"overnight-trading-bot/internal/domain"
+)
+
+func TestValidateMetadataRejectsMissingLotOrTick(t *testing.T) {
+	candles := map[string][]domain.Candle{
+		"uid": {{InstrumentUID: "uid", TradeDate: time.Date(2026, 6, 8, 0, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC)}},
+	}
+	err := validateMetadata(candles, map[string]backtest.InstrumentMetadata{
+		"uid": {Lot: 10},
+	})
+	if err == nil || !strings.Contains(err.Error(), "missing lot/min_price_increment metadata") {
+		t.Fatalf("err=%v, want missing metadata error", err)
+	}
+}
+
+func TestValidateMetadataAcceptsCompleteMetadata(t *testing.T) {
+	candles := map[string][]domain.Candle{
+		"uid": {{InstrumentUID: "uid", TradeDate: time.Date(2026, 6, 8, 0, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC)}},
+	}
+	err := validateMetadata(candles, map[string]backtest.InstrumentMetadata{
+		"uid": {Lot: 10, MinPriceIncrement: decimal.RequireFromString("0.01")},
+	})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+}

cmd/mode-days/main.go

@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+package main
+
+import (
+	"context"
+	"flag"
+	"fmt"
+	"os"
+	"sort"
+	"strings"
+	"time"
+
+	_ "github.com/go-sql-driver/mysql"
+	"github.com/jmoiron/sqlx"
+
+	"overnight-trading-bot/internal/domain"
+)
+
+const moscowOffset = 3 * time.Hour
+
+type modeDayRow struct {
+	Mode string `db:"mode"`
+	Days int    `db:"days"`
+}
+
+func main() {
+	if err := run(); err != nil {
+		fmt.Fprintf(os.Stderr, "%v\n", err)
+		os.Exit(1)
+	}
+}
+
+func run() error {
+	dsn := flag.String("dsn", os.Getenv("DB_DSN"), "MySQL/MariaDB DSN")
+	fromRaw := flag.String("from", "", "optional start date YYYY-MM-DD")
+	toRaw := flag.String("to", "", "optional end date YYYY-MM-DD, inclusive")
+	check := flag.Bool("check", true, "fail when live readiness thresholds are not met")
+	minReadonly := flag.Int("min-readonly-days", 20, "minimum live_readonly days")
+	minPaper := flag.Int("min-paper-days", 20, "minimum paper days")
+	minSandbox := flag.Int("min-sandbox-days", 10, "minimum sandbox days")
+	flag.Parse()
+	if *dsn == "" {
+		return fmt.Errorf("DB_DSN is required")
+	}
+	from, err := parseOptionalDate(*fromRaw)
+	if err != nil {
+		return fmt.Errorf("from: %w", err)
+	}
+	to, err := parseOptionalDate(*toRaw)
+	if err != nil {
+		return fmt.Errorf("to: %w", err)
+	}
+	db, err := sqlx.Open("mysql", *dsn)
+	if err != nil {
+		return fmt.Errorf("open db: %w", err)
+	}
+	defer func() {
+		_ = db.Close()
+	}()
+	ctx, cancel := context.WithTimeout(context.Background(), 30*time.Second)
+	defer cancel()
+	if err := db.PingContext(ctx); err != nil {
+		return fmt.Errorf("ping db: %w", err)
+	}
+	counts, err := loadModeDayCounts(ctx, db, from, to)
+	if err != nil {
+		return err
+	}
+	printCounts(counts)
+	if !*check {
+		return nil
+	}
+	thresholds := map[domain.Mode]int{
+		domain.ModeLiveReadonly: *minReadonly,
+		domain.ModePaper:        *minPaper,
+		domain.ModeSandbox:      *minSandbox,
+	}
+	return checkThresholds(counts, thresholds)
+}
+
+func loadModeDayCounts(ctx context.Context, db *sqlx.DB, from, to time.Time) (map[domain.Mode]int, error) {
+	query := `SELECT mode, COUNT(DISTINCT DATE(DATE_ADD(ts, INTERVAL 3 HOUR))) AS days FROM system_state_history WHERE DAYOFWEEK(DATE_ADD(ts, INTERVAL 3 HOUR)) BETWEEN 2 AND 6`
+	var args []any
+	if !from.IsZero() {
+		query += ` AND ts >= ?`
+		args = append(args, from.Add(-moscowOffset))
+	}
+	if !to.IsZero() {
+		query += ` AND ts < ?`
+		args = append(args, to.AddDate(0, 0, 1).Add(-moscowOffset))
+	}
+	query += ` GROUP BY mode`
+	var rows []modeDayRow
+	if err := db.SelectContext(ctx, &rows, query, args...); err != nil {
+		return nil, fmt.Errorf("query mode days: %w", err)
+	}
+	counts := make(map[domain.Mode]int, len(rows))
+	for _, row := range rows {
+		mode, err := domain.ParseMode(row.Mode)
+		if err != nil {
+			return nil, err
+		}
+		counts[mode] = row.Days
+	}
+	return counts, nil
+}
+
+func printCounts(counts map[domain.Mode]int) {
+	modes := make([]string, 0, len(counts))
+	for mode := range counts {
+		modes = append(modes, string(mode))
+	}
+	sort.Strings(modes)
+	for _, rawMode := range modes {
+		mode := domain.Mode(rawMode)
+		fmt.Printf("%s=%d\n", mode, counts[mode])
+	}
+}
+
+func checkThresholds(counts map[domain.Mode]int, thresholds map[domain.Mode]int) error {
+	var failed []string
+	for mode, threshold := range thresholds {
+		if counts[mode] < threshold {
+			failed = append(failed, fmt.Sprintf("%s=%d/%d", mode, counts[mode], threshold))
+		}
+	}
+	sort.Strings(failed)
+	if len(failed) > 0 {
+		return fmt.Errorf("mode day thresholds not met: %s", strings.Join(failed, ", "))
+	}
+	return nil
+}
+
+func parseOptionalDate(raw string) (time.Time, error) {
+	if raw == "" {
+		return time.Time{}, nil
+	}
+	return time.ParseInLocation("2006-01-02", raw, time.UTC)
+}

go.mod

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ require (
 	github.com/shopspring/decimal v1.4.0
 	github.com/testcontainers/testcontainers-go v0.42.0
 	github.com/testcontainers/testcontainers-go/modules/mariadb v0.42.0
+	google.golang.org/grpc v1.81.1
 	google.golang.org/protobuf v1.36.11
 )
 
@@ -69,10 +70,9 @@ require (
 	golang.org/x/crypto v0.51.0 // indirect
 	golang.org/x/net v0.55.0 // indirect
 	golang.org/x/oauth2 v0.36.0 // indirect
-	golang.org/x/sys v0.45.0 // indirect
+	golang.org/x/sys v0.46.0 // indirect
 	golang.org/x/text v0.37.0 // indirect
 	google.golang.org/genproto/googleapis/api v0.0.0-20260526163538-3dc84a4a5aaa // indirect
 	google.golang.org/genproto/googleapis/rpc v0.0.0-20260526163538-3dc84a4a5aaa // indirect
-	google.golang.org/grpc v1.81.1 // indirect
 	gopkg.in/yaml.v3 v3.0.1 // indirect
 )

go.sum

@@ -163,8 +163,8 @@ golang.org/x/oauth2 v0.36.0/go.mod h1:YDBUJMTkDnJS+A4BP4eZBjCqtokkg1hODuPjwiGPO7
 golang.org/x/sys v0.0.0-20190916202348-b4ddaad3f8a3/go.mod h1:h1NjWce9XRLGQEsW7wpKNCjG9DtNlClVuFLEZdDNbEs=
 golang.org/x/sys v0.0.0-20201204225414-ed752295db88/go.mod h1:h1NjWce9XRLGQEsW7wpKNCjG9DtNlClVuFLEZdDNbEs=
 golang.org/x/sys v0.0.0-20210616094352-59db8d763f22/go.mod h1:oPkhp1MJrh7nUepCBck5+mAzfO9JrbApNNgaTdGDITg=
-golang.org/x/sys v0.45.0 h1:dO4czNzziLiiXplLQgBCEpCvXQ3dnkn0SdaZSYdQ+FY=
+golang.org/x/sys v0.46.0 h1:noSf2Fq6F8DBgS+LysIkx7rIExoNHJsxOAtPp4rthXw=
-golang.org/x/sys v0.45.0/go.mod h1:4GL1E5IUh+htKOUEOaiffhrAeqysfVGipDYzABqnCmw=
+golang.org/x/sys v0.46.0/go.mod h1:4GL1E5IUh+htKOUEOaiffhrAeqysfVGipDYzABqnCmw=
 golang.org/x/term v0.43.0 h1:S4RLU2sB31O/NCl+zFN9Aru9A/Cq2aqKpTZJ6B+DwT4=
 golang.org/x/term v0.43.0/go.mod h1:lrhlHNdQJHO+1qVYiHfFKVuVioJIheAc3fBSMFYEIsk=
 golang.org/x/text v0.37.0 h1:Cqjiwd9eSg8e0QAkyCaQTNHFIIzWtidPahFWR83rTrc=

internal/app/app.go

@@ -150,6 +150,16 @@ func Run(ctx context.Context, opts Options) error {
 		_, _ = fmt.Fprintf(opts.Stdout, "system unhalted: %s\n", opts.Reason)
 		return nil
 	}
+	if cfg.App.Mode == domain.ModeLiveTrade {
+		persistedMode, err := repo.GetSystemMode(ctx)
+		if err != nil {
+			return fmt.Errorf("read persisted system mode: %w", err)
+		}
+		if persistedMode == domain.ModeLiveReadonly {
+			cfg.App.Mode = domain.ModeLiveReadonly
+			log.Warn("runtime mode downgraded from live_trade to persisted live_readonly")
+		}
+	}
 
 	gateway, closer, err := buildGateway(ctx, cfg, log)
 	if err != nil {

internal/domain/types.go

@@ -184,6 +184,7 @@ type FeatureSet struct {
 	TickBps             decimal.Decimal
 	ADV20               decimal.Decimal
 	ExpectedCostBps     decimal.Decimal
+	CostBreakdownJSON   string
 	NetEdgeBps          decimal.Decimal
 	EntryIntervalVolume decimal.Decimal
 	ExitIntervalVolume  decimal.Decimal

internal/execution/engine.go

@@ -69,6 +69,10 @@ func NewEngine(mode domain.Mode, accountID string, gateway Gateway, store reposi
 	}
 }
 
+func (e *Engine) SetMode(mode domain.Mode) {
+	e.mode = mode
+}
+
 func (e *Engine) SetMaxQuoteAge(maxQuoteAge time.Duration) {
 	e.maxQuoteAge = maxQuoteAge
 }

internal/features/pipeline.go

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ package features
 
 import (
 	"context"
+	"encoding/json"
 	"fmt"
 	"sort"
 	"time"
@@ -94,6 +95,9 @@ func Compute(instrument domain.Instrument, candles []domain.Candle, tradeDate ti
 	var lastROn decimal.Decimal
 	var lastRDay decimal.Decimal
 	for i := 1; i < len(candles); i++ {
+		if !consecutiveDailyCandles(candles[i-1].TradeDate, candles[i].TradeDate) {
+			continue
+		}
 		rOn, err := OvernightReturn(candles[i].Open, candles[i-1].Close)
 		if err != nil {
 			return domain.FeatureSet{}, err
@@ -107,6 +111,9 @@ func Compute(instrument domain.Instrument, candles []domain.Candle, tradeDate ti
 		lastROn = rOn
 		lastRDay = rDay
 	}
+	if len(overnight) == 0 {
+		return domain.FeatureSet{}, fmt.Errorf("need at least 1 consecutive daily candle pair")
+	}
 	short := Rolling(overnight, cfg.RollingShort, cfg.EWMALambda)
 	long := Rolling(overnight, cfg.RollingLong, cfg.EWMALambda)
 	q05Abs := rollingQ05Abs(overnight, cfg.RollingShort)
@@ -118,6 +125,7 @@ func Compute(instrument domain.Instrument, candles []domain.Candle, tradeDate ti
 		Add(cfg.ExitSlippageBps).
 		Add(commission).
 		Add(cfg.RiskBufferBps)
+	costBreakdownJSON := expectedCostBreakdownJSON(spread, cfg, commission, expectedCost)
 	return domain.FeatureSet{
 		InstrumentUID:       instrument.InstrumentUID,
 		TradeDate:           tradeDate,
@@ -135,6 +143,7 @@ func Compute(instrument domain.Instrument, candles []domain.Candle, tradeDate ti
 		TickBps:             spread.TickBps,
 		ADV20:               adv,
 		ExpectedCostBps:     expectedCost,
+		CostBreakdownJSON:   costBreakdownJSON,
 		NetEdgeBps:          rawEdgeBps.Sub(expectedCost),
 		EntryIntervalVolume: entryVolume,
 		ExitIntervalVolume:  exitVolume,
@@ -142,6 +151,28 @@ func Compute(instrument domain.Instrument, candles []domain.Candle, tradeDate ti
 	}, nil
 }
 
+func expectedCostBreakdownJSON(spread SpreadResult, cfg PipelineConfig, commission, expectedCost decimal.Decimal) string {
+	spreadEntry := spread.HalfSpreadBps
+	if spreadEntry.IsZero() && spread.SpreadBps.IsPositive() {
+		spreadEntry = spread.SpreadBps.Div(decimal.NewFromInt(2))
+	}
+	spreadExit := spread.SpreadBps.Sub(spreadEntry)
+	payload := map[string]string{
+		"expected_spread_entry_bps":   spreadEntry.String(),
+		"expected_spread_exit_bps":    spreadExit.String(),
+		"expected_slippage_entry_bps": cfg.EntrySlippageBps.String(),
+		"expected_slippage_exit_bps":  cfg.ExitSlippageBps.String(),
+		"commission_roundtrip_bps":    commission.String(),
+		"risk_buffer_bps":             cfg.RiskBufferBps.String(),
+		"expected_cost_bps":           expectedCost.String(),
+	}
+	raw, err := json.Marshal(payload)
+	if err != nil {
+		return "{}"
+	}
+	return string(raw)
+}
+
 func rollingQ05Abs(values []float64, window int) decimal.Decimal {
 	if window <= 0 || len(values) < window {
 		return decimal.Zero
@@ -170,9 +201,27 @@ func historicalDailyCandles(candles []domain.Candle, tradeDate time.Time) []doma
 			out = append(out, candle)
 		}
 	}
+	sort.Slice(out, func(i, j int) bool {
+		return out[i].TradeDate.Before(out[j].TradeDate)
+	})
 	return out
 }
 
+func consecutiveDailyCandles(previous, current time.Time) bool {
+	prevDay := dateOnly(previous)
+	currentDay := dateOnly(current)
+	if !currentDay.After(prevDay) {
+		return false
+	}
+	weekdays := 0
+	for day := prevDay.AddDate(0, 0, 1); !day.After(currentDay); day = day.AddDate(0, 0, 1) {
+		if day.Weekday() != time.Saturday && day.Weekday() != time.Sunday {
+			weekdays++
+		}
+	}
+	return weekdays == 1
+}
+
 func dateOnly(ts time.Time) time.Time {
 	year, month, day := ts.UTC().Date()
 	return time.Date(year, month, day, 0, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC)

internal/features/pipeline_test.go

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ package features
 
 import (
 	"context"
+	"encoding/json"
 	"testing"
 	"time"
 
@@ -44,6 +45,24 @@ func TestComputeExpectedCostIncludesCommissionAndSlippage(t *testing.T) {
 	if !got.ExpectedCostBps.Equal(decimal.NewFromInt(22)) {
 		t.Fatalf("expected cost=%s, want 22", got.ExpectedCostBps)
 	}
+	var breakdown map[string]string
+	if err := json.Unmarshal([]byte(got.CostBreakdownJSON), &breakdown); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("cost breakdown is not valid JSON: %v", err)
+	}
+	wantBreakdown := map[string]string{
+		"expected_spread_entry_bps":   "5",
+		"expected_spread_exit_bps":    "5",
+		"expected_slippage_entry_bps": "2",
+		"expected_slippage_exit_bps":  "3",
+		"commission_roundtrip_bps":    "2",
+		"risk_buffer_bps":             "5",
+		"expected_cost_bps":           "22",
+	}
+	for key, want := range wantBreakdown {
+		if breakdown[key] != want {
+			t.Fatalf("breakdown[%s]=%q, want %q in %s", key, breakdown[key], want, got.CostBreakdownJSON)
+		}
+	}
 	if !got.EntryIntervalVolume.Equal(decimal.NewFromInt(10000)) || !got.ExitIntervalVolume.Equal(decimal.NewFromInt(9000)) {
 		t.Fatalf("interval volumes were not preserved: %+v", got)
 	}
@@ -72,7 +91,7 @@ func TestComputeExpectedCostFallsBackToConfigCommission(t *testing.T) {
 }
 
 func TestComputeStoresHistoricalQ05Abs(t *testing.T) {
-	start := time.Date(2026, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC)
+	start := time.Date(2026, 1, 5, 0, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC)
 	returns := []string{"-0.10", "0.01", "0.02", "0.03", "0.04"}
 	candles := []domain.Candle{{
 		InstrumentUID: "uid",
@@ -89,13 +108,13 @@ func TestComputeStoresHistoricalQ05Abs(t *testing.T) {
 		open := decimal.NewFromInt(100).Mul(decimal.NewFromInt(1).Add(r))
 		candles = append(candles, domain.Candle{
 			InstrumentUID: "uid",
-			TradeDate:     start.AddDate(0, 0, i+1),
+			TradeDate:     addBusinessDays(start, i+1),
 			Open:          open,
 			Close:         decimal.NewFromInt(100),
 			VolumeLots:    decimal.NewFromInt(1),
 		})
 	}
-	got, err := Compute(domain.Instrument{InstrumentUID: "uid", Lot: 1}, candles, start.AddDate(0, 0, 6), SpreadResult{}, PipelineConfig{
+	got, err := Compute(domain.Instrument{InstrumentUID: "uid", Lot: 1}, candles, addBusinessDays(start, 6), SpreadResult{}, PipelineConfig{
 		RollingShort: 5,
 		RollingLong:  5,
 		EWMALambda:   0.08,
@@ -113,6 +132,48 @@ func TestComputeStoresHistoricalQ05Abs(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
+func TestComputeSkipsOvernightReturnAcrossMissingWeekday(t *testing.T) {
+	start := time.Date(2026, 1, 5, 0, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC) // Monday.
+	candles := []domain.Candle{
+		{InstrumentUID: "uid", TradeDate: start, Open: decimal.NewFromInt(100), Close: decimal.NewFromInt(100), VolumeLots: decimal.NewFromInt(1)},
+		{InstrumentUID: "uid", TradeDate: start.AddDate(0, 0, 1), Open: decimal.NewFromInt(101), Close: decimal.NewFromInt(100), VolumeLots: decimal.NewFromInt(1)},
+		{InstrumentUID: "uid", TradeDate: start.AddDate(0, 0, 3), Open: decimal.NewFromInt(50), Close: decimal.NewFromInt(100), VolumeLots: decimal.NewFromInt(1)},
+	}
+	got, err := Compute(domain.Instrument{InstrumentUID: "uid", Lot: 1}, candles, start.AddDate(0, 0, 4), SpreadResult{}, PipelineConfig{
+		RollingShort: 1,
+		RollingLong:  1,
+		EWMALambda:   0.08,
+	}, decimal.Zero, decimal.Zero)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	want := decimal.RequireFromString("0.01")
+	if !got.ROn.Equal(want) {
+		t.Fatalf("ROn=%s, want %s from last consecutive pair", got.ROn, want)
+	}
+}
+
+func TestComputeAllowsWeekendGap(t *testing.T) {
+	friday := time.Date(2026, 1, 9, 0, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC)
+	monday := friday.AddDate(0, 0, 3)
+	candles := []domain.Candle{
+		{InstrumentUID: "uid", TradeDate: friday, Open: decimal.NewFromInt(100), Close: decimal.NewFromInt(100), VolumeLots: decimal.NewFromInt(1)},
+		{InstrumentUID: "uid", TradeDate: monday, Open: decimal.NewFromInt(101), Close: decimal.NewFromInt(100), VolumeLots: decimal.NewFromInt(1)},
+	}
+	got, err := Compute(domain.Instrument{InstrumentUID: "uid", Lot: 1}, candles, monday.AddDate(0, 0, 1), SpreadResult{}, PipelineConfig{
+		RollingShort: 1,
+		RollingLong:  1,
+		EWMALambda:   0.08,
+	}, decimal.Zero, decimal.Zero)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	want := decimal.RequireFromString("0.01")
+	if !got.ROn.Equal(want) {
+		t.Fatalf("ROn=%s, want %s across weekend", got.ROn, want)
+	}
+}
+
 func flatCandles(start time.Time, count int) []domain.Candle {
 	candles := make([]domain.Candle, 0, count)
 	for i := 0; i < count; i++ {
@@ -128,6 +189,18 @@ func flatCandles(start time.Time, count int) []domain.Candle {
 	return candles
 }
 
+func addBusinessDays(start time.Time, days int) time.Time {
+	out := start
+	for added := 0; added < days; {
+		out = out.AddDate(0, 0, 1)
+		if out.Weekday() == time.Saturday || out.Weekday() == time.Sunday {
+			continue
+		}
+		added++
+	}
+	return out
+}
+
 func TestIntervalVolume(t *testing.T) {
 	got := IntervalVolume([]domain.Candle{
 		{Close: decimal.NewFromInt(100), VolumeLots: decimal.NewFromInt(10)},

internal/repository/migrations/0009_feature_cost_breakdown.down.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+ALTER TABLE features
+  DROP COLUMN cost_breakdown_json;
+
+UPDATE schema_meta SET meta_value='0008' WHERE meta_key='schema_version';

internal/repository/migrations/0009_feature_cost_breakdown.up.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+ALTER TABLE features
+  ADD COLUMN cost_breakdown_json JSON AFTER expected_cost_bps;
+
+UPDATE schema_meta SET meta_value='0009' WHERE meta_key='schema_version';

internal/repository/migrations/0010_system_state_history.down.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+DROP TABLE IF EXISTS system_state_history;
+
+UPDATE schema_meta SET meta_value='0009' WHERE meta_key='schema_version';

internal/repository/migrations/0010_system_state_history.up.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS system_state_history (
+  id BIGINT UNSIGNED NOT NULL AUTO_INCREMENT PRIMARY KEY,
+  ts DATETIME(3) NOT NULL,
+  state ENUM('INIT','SYNC_INSTRUMENTS','SYNC_MARKET_DATA','GENERATE_SIGNALS','WAIT_ENTRY_WINDOW','PLACE_ENTRY_ORDERS','MONITOR_ENTRY_ORDERS','HOLD_OVERNIGHT','WAIT_EXIT_WINDOW','PLACE_EXIT_ORDERS','MONITOR_EXIT_ORDERS','RECONCILE','REPORT','SLEEP','HALTED') NOT NULL,
+  mode ENUM('backtest','paper','sandbox','live_readonly','live_trade') NOT NULL,
+  halted TINYINT(1) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+  halt_reason TEXT,
+  context_json JSON,
+  KEY ix_system_state_history_ts (ts),
+  KEY ix_system_state_history_mode_ts (mode, ts)
+) ENGINE=InnoDB DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_ci;
+
+INSERT INTO system_state_history (ts, state, mode, halted, halt_reason, context_json)
+SELECT last_heartbeat, state, mode, halted, halt_reason, context_json
+FROM system_state
+WHERE id=1
+  AND NOT EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM system_state_history);
+
+UPDATE schema_meta SET meta_value='0010' WHERE meta_key='schema_version';

internal/repository/mysql/repository.go

@@ -231,13 +231,13 @@ func (r *Repository) mergeFeatures(ctx context.Context, oldInstrumentUID, newIns
 INSERT INTO features (
   instrument_uid, trade_date, r_on, r_day, mu_on_60, mu_on_252, sigma_on_60, q05_on_60_abs,
   tstat_on_60, win_on_60, ewma_on, spread_bps, half_spread_bps, tick_bps,
-  adv_20, expected_cost_bps, net_edge_bps, entry_interval_volume,
+  adv_20, expected_cost_bps, cost_breakdown_json, net_edge_bps, entry_interval_volume,
   exit_interval_volume, calculated_at
 )
 SELECT
   ?, trade_date, r_on, r_day, mu_on_60, mu_on_252, sigma_on_60, q05_on_60_abs,
   tstat_on_60, win_on_60, ewma_on, spread_bps, half_spread_bps, tick_bps,
-  adv_20, expected_cost_bps, net_edge_bps, entry_interval_volume,
+  adv_20, expected_cost_bps, cost_breakdown_json, net_edge_bps, entry_interval_volume,
   exit_interval_volume, calculated_at
 FROM features WHERE instrument_uid=?
 ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE
@@ -247,6 +247,7 @@ ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE
   ewma_on=VALUES(ewma_on), spread_bps=VALUES(spread_bps),
   half_spread_bps=VALUES(half_spread_bps), tick_bps=VALUES(tick_bps),
   adv_20=VALUES(adv_20), expected_cost_bps=VALUES(expected_cost_bps),
+  cost_breakdown_json=VALUES(cost_breakdown_json),
   net_edge_bps=VALUES(net_edge_bps), entry_interval_volume=VALUES(entry_interval_volume),
   exit_interval_volume=VALUES(exit_interval_volume), calculated_at=VALUES(calculated_at)`, newInstrumentUID, oldInstrumentUID)
 	if err != nil {
@@ -392,12 +393,12 @@ func (r *Repository) UpsertFeature(ctx context.Context, feature domain.FeatureSe
 INSERT INTO features (
   instrument_uid, trade_date, r_on, r_day, mu_on_60, mu_on_252, sigma_on_60, q05_on_60_abs,
   tstat_on_60, win_on_60, ewma_on, spread_bps, half_spread_bps, tick_bps,
-  adv_20, expected_cost_bps, net_edge_bps, entry_interval_volume,
+  adv_20, expected_cost_bps, cost_breakdown_json, net_edge_bps, entry_interval_volume,
   exit_interval_volume, calculated_at
 ) VALUES (
   :instrument_uid, :trade_date, :r_on, :r_day, :mu_on_60, :mu_on_252, :sigma_on_60, :q05_on_60_abs,
   :tstat_on_60, :win_on_60, :ewma_on, :spread_bps, :half_spread_bps, :tick_bps,
-  :adv_20, :expected_cost_bps, :net_edge_bps, :entry_interval_volume,
+  :adv_20, :expected_cost_bps, :cost_breakdown_json, :net_edge_bps, :entry_interval_volume,
   :exit_interval_volume, :calculated_at
 ) ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE
   r_on=VALUES(r_on), r_day=VALUES(r_day), mu_on_60=VALUES(mu_on_60),
@@ -406,6 +407,7 @@ INSERT INTO features (
   ewma_on=VALUES(ewma_on), spread_bps=VALUES(spread_bps),
   half_spread_bps=VALUES(half_spread_bps), tick_bps=VALUES(tick_bps),
   adv_20=VALUES(adv_20), expected_cost_bps=VALUES(expected_cost_bps),
+  cost_breakdown_json=VALUES(cost_breakdown_json),
   net_edge_bps=VALUES(net_edge_bps), entry_interval_volume=VALUES(entry_interval_volume),
   exit_interval_volume=VALUES(exit_interval_volume), calculated_at=VALUES(calculated_at)`, featureRowFromDomain(feature))
 	return err
@@ -670,7 +672,10 @@ ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE
   halt_reason=IF(halted=1 AND VALUES(halted)=0, halt_reason, VALUES(halt_reason)),
   last_heartbeat=VALUES(last_heartbeat),
   context_json=VALUES(context_json)`, state, mode, halted, nullableString(reason), contextJSON)
-	return err
+	if err != nil {
+		return err
+	}
+	return r.insertSystemStateHistory(ctx, state, mode, halted, reason, contextJSON)
 }
 
 func (r *Repository) forceSaveSystemState(ctx context.Context, state domain.SystemState, mode domain.Mode, halted bool, reason string, contextJSON string) error {
@@ -684,6 +689,16 @@ ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE
   state=VALUES(state), mode=VALUES(mode), halted=VALUES(halted),
   halt_reason=VALUES(halt_reason), last_heartbeat=VALUES(last_heartbeat),
   context_json=VALUES(context_json)`, state, mode, halted, nullableString(reason), contextJSON)
+	if err != nil {
+		return err
+	}
+	return r.insertSystemStateHistory(ctx, state, mode, halted, reason, contextJSON)
+}
+
+func (r *Repository) insertSystemStateHistory(ctx context.Context, state domain.SystemState, mode domain.Mode, halted bool, reason string, contextJSON string) error {
+	_, err := r.execer().ExecContext(ctx, `
+INSERT INTO system_state_history (ts, state, mode, halted, halt_reason, context_json)
+VALUES (UTC_TIMESTAMP(3), ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)`, state, mode, halted, nullableString(reason), contextJSON)
 	return err
 }
 
@@ -731,6 +746,10 @@ func (r *Repository) getSystemMode(ctx context.Context) (domain.Mode, error) {
 	return mode, nil
 }
 
+func (r *Repository) GetSystemMode(ctx context.Context) (domain.Mode, error) {
+	return r.getSystemMode(ctx)
+}
+
 func (r *Repository) WasDailyReportSent(ctx context.Context, reportDate time.Time, accountIDHash string) (bool, error) {
 	var count int
 	if err := r.getContext(ctx, &count, `

internal/repository/mysql/rows.go

@@ -80,6 +80,7 @@ type featureRow struct {
 	TickBps             decimal.Decimal `db:"tick_bps"`
 	ADV20               decimal.Decimal `db:"adv_20"`
 	ExpectedCostBps     decimal.Decimal `db:"expected_cost_bps"`
+	CostBreakdownJSON   sql.NullString  `db:"cost_breakdown_json"`
 	NetEdgeBps          decimal.Decimal `db:"net_edge_bps"`
 	EntryIntervalVolume decimal.Decimal `db:"entry_interval_volume"`
 	ExitIntervalVolume  decimal.Decimal `db:"exit_interval_volume"`
@@ -104,6 +105,7 @@ func featureRowFromDomain(feature domain.FeatureSet) featureRow {
 		TickBps:             feature.TickBps,
 		ADV20:               feature.ADV20,
 		ExpectedCostBps:     feature.ExpectedCostBps,
+		CostBreakdownJSON:   sql.NullString{String: feature.CostBreakdownJSON, Valid: feature.CostBreakdownJSON != ""},
 		NetEdgeBps:          feature.NetEdgeBps,
 		EntryIntervalVolume: feature.EntryIntervalVolume,
 		ExitIntervalVolume:  feature.ExitIntervalVolume,
@@ -129,6 +131,7 @@ func (r featureRow) domain() domain.FeatureSet {
 		TickBps:             r.TickBps,
 		ADV20:               r.ADV20,
 		ExpectedCostBps:     r.ExpectedCostBps,
+		CostBreakdownJSON:   r.CostBreakdownJSON.String,
 		NetEdgeBps:          r.NetEdgeBps,
 		EntryIntervalVolume: r.EntryIntervalVolume,
 		ExitIntervalVolume:  r.ExitIntervalVolume,

internal/risk/manager.go

@@ -31,20 +31,23 @@ type ManagerConfig struct {
 }
 
 type PreTradeInput struct {
-	Portfolio            domain.Portfolio
+	Portfolio             domain.Portfolio
-	OpenPositions        int
+	OpenPositions         int
-	ClosingPosition      bool
+	ClosingPosition       bool
-	DailyPnL             decimal.Decimal
+	DailyPnL              decimal.Decimal
-	WeeklyPnL            decimal.Decimal
+	WeeklyPnL             decimal.Decimal
-	MonthlyDrawdownPct   decimal.Decimal
+	MonthlyDrawdownPct    decimal.Decimal
-	AvgSlippageBps10     decimal.Decimal
+	AvgSlippageBps10      decimal.Decimal
-	TradingStatus        domain.TradingStatus
+	TradingStatus         domain.TradingStatus
-	QuoteReceivedAt      time.Time
+	QuoteReceivedAt       time.Time
-	Now                  time.Time
+	Now                   time.Time
-	MarketClose          time.Time
+	MarketClose           time.Time
-	DatabaseUnavailable  bool
+	ServerTimeUnavailable bool
-	UnknownBrokerOrder   bool
+	ServerClockDrift      time.Duration
-	UnknownBrokerHolding bool
+	MaxClockDrift         time.Duration
+	DatabaseUnavailable   bool
+	UnknownBrokerOrder    bool
+	UnknownBrokerHolding  bool
 }
 
 type PreTradeResult struct {
@@ -84,6 +87,10 @@ func (m Manager) PreTradeCheck(input PreTradeInput) PreTradeResult {
 	switch {
 	case input.DatabaseUnavailable:
 		return reject("database_unavailable")
+	case input.ServerTimeUnavailable:
+		return reject("server_time_unavailable")
+	case input.MaxClockDrift > 0 && input.ServerClockDrift > input.MaxClockDrift:
+		return reject("server_clock_drift_too_high")
 	case input.UnknownBrokerOrder:
 		return reject("unknown_broker_order")
 	case input.UnknownBrokerHolding:

internal/risk/manager_test.go

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ package risk
 
 import (
 	"testing"
+	"time"
 
 	"github.com/shopspring/decimal"
 
@@ -26,3 +27,30 @@ func TestPreTradeClosingPositionBypassesOpenPositionLimit(t *testing.T) {
 		t.Fatalf("entry result=%+v, want max_open_positions reject", result)
 	}
 }
+
+func TestPreTradeRejectsServerClockDrift(t *testing.T) {
+	manager := NewManager(nil, ManagerConfig{})
+	input := PreTradeInput{
+		Portfolio:        domain.Portfolio{Equity: decimal.NewFromInt(1000)},
+		TradingStatus:    domain.TradingStatusNormal,
+		ServerClockDrift: 3 * time.Second,
+		MaxClockDrift:    2 * time.Second,
+	}
+	result := manager.PreTradeCheck(input)
+	if result.Allowed || result.Reason != "server_clock_drift_too_high" {
+		t.Fatalf("result=%+v, want server_clock_drift_too_high reject", result)
+	}
+}
+
+func TestPreTradeRejectsUnavailableServerTime(t *testing.T) {
+	manager := NewManager(nil, ManagerConfig{})
+	input := PreTradeInput{
+		Portfolio:             domain.Portfolio{Equity: decimal.NewFromInt(1000)},
+		TradingStatus:         domain.TradingStatusNormal,
+		ServerTimeUnavailable: true,
+	}
+	result := manager.PreTradeCheck(input)
+	if result.Allowed || result.Reason != "server_time_unavailable" {
+		t.Fatalf("result=%+v, want server_time_unavailable reject", result)
+	}
+}

internal/scheduler/scheduler.go

@@ -32,6 +32,7 @@ import (
 const (
 	sizeReductionWindowTrades  = 20
 	sizeReductionFactor        = 0.5
+	sizeReductionTriggerBps    = -10
 	intervalVolumeLookbackDays = 20
 )
 
@@ -899,30 +900,36 @@ func (s *Scheduler) applySizeReductionRule(ctx context.Context, tradeDate time.T
 	if err != nil {
 		return err
 	}
-	if !ok || count < sizeReductionWindowTrades || averageError.GreaterThanOrEqual(decimal.NewFromInt(-10)) {
+	if !ok || count < sizeReductionWindowTrades || averageError.GreaterThanOrEqual(decimal.NewFromInt(sizeReductionTriggerBps)) {
 		s.svc.Sizer = s.svc.Sizer.WithSizeFactor(decimal.NewFromInt(1))
 		return nil
 	}
 	factor := decimal.NewFromFloat(sizeReductionFactor)
 	s.svc.Sizer = s.svc.Sizer.WithSizeFactor(factor)
-	if !emitEvent {
+	if emitEvent {
-		return nil
+		if err := s.svc.Repo.InsertRiskEvent(ctx, domain.RiskEvent{
+			Severity:    domain.SeverityWarn,
+			EventType:   "size_reduction_rule_triggered",
+			Message:     fmt.Sprintf("average expected_error_bps over %d trades is %s; sizing factor set to %s", count, averageError.StringFixed(2), factor.String()),
+			ContextJSON: fmt.Sprintf(`{"average_expected_error_bps":%q,"trades":%d,"size_factor":%q}`, averageError.String(), count, factor.String()),
+		}); err != nil {
+			return err
+		}
 	}
-	if err := s.svc.Repo.InsertRiskEvent(ctx, domain.RiskEvent{
+	return s.handleLiveReadonlyAfterSizeReduction(ctx, tradeDate, averageError, count, factor, emitEvent)
-		Severity:    domain.SeverityWarn,
-		EventType:   "size_reduction_rule_triggered",
-		Message:     fmt.Sprintf("average expected_error_bps over %d trades is %s; sizing factor set to %s", count, averageError.StringFixed(2), factor.String()),
-		ContextJSON: fmt.Sprintf(`{"average_expected_error_bps":%q,"trades":%d,"size_factor":%q}`, averageError.String(), count, factor.String()),
-	}); err != nil {
-		return err
-	}
-	return s.recommendLiveReadonlyAfterSizeReduction(ctx, averageError, count, factor)
 }
 
 func (s Scheduler) averageExpectedErrorBps(ctx context.Context, tradeDate time.Time, limit int) (decimal.Decimal, int, bool, error) {
+	return s.averageExpectedErrorBpsWindow(ctx, tradeDate, 0, limit)
+}
+
+func (s Scheduler) averageExpectedErrorBpsWindow(ctx context.Context, tradeDate time.Time, offset, limit int) (decimal.Decimal, int, bool, error) {
 	if limit <= 0 {
 		return decimal.Zero, 0, false, nil
 	}
+	if offset < 0 {
+		offset = 0
+	}
 	positionsList, err := s.svc.Repo.ListPositions(ctx, s.svc.AccountIDHash, tradeDate.AddDate(0, 0, -120), tradeDate)
 	if err != nil {
 		return decimal.Zero, 0, false, err
@@ -949,6 +956,10 @@ func (s Scheduler) averageExpectedErrorBps(ctx context.Context, tradeDate time.T
 			if sig.InstrumentUID != pos.InstrumentUID || sig.Decision != domain.DecisionEnter {
 				continue
 			}
+			if offset > 0 {
+				offset--
+				break
+			}
 			errorsBps = append(errorsBps, pos.RealizedEdgeBps.Sub(sig.NetEdgeBps))
 			break
 		}
@@ -1229,6 +1240,10 @@ func (s Scheduler) checkEntryInstrumentBeforeOrder(instrument domain.Instrument,
 }
 
 func (s Scheduler) preTradeCheck(ctx context.Context, now time.Time, instrumentUID string, portfolio domain.Portfolio, openPositions int, closingPosition bool, tradingStatus domain.TradingStatus, quoteReceivedAt time.Time) (risk.PreTradeResult, error) {
+	serverClockDrift, serverTimeUnavailable, err := s.preTradeClockDrift(ctx, now)
+	if err != nil {
+		return risk.PreTradeResult{}, err
+	}
 	metrics, err := s.riskMetrics(ctx, now, portfolio)
 	if err != nil {
 		if haltErr := s.halt(ctx, "database_unavailable", fmt.Sprintf("pre-trade risk metrics unavailable: %s", err), instrumentUID); haltErr != nil {
@@ -1241,19 +1256,22 @@ func (s Scheduler) preTradeCheck(ctx context.Context, now time.Time, instrumentU
 		return risk.PreTradeResult{}, err
 	}
 	result := s.svc.Risk.PreTradeCheck(risk.PreTradeInput{
-		Portfolio:            portfolio,
+		Portfolio:             portfolio,
-		OpenPositions:        openPositions,
+		OpenPositions:         openPositions,
-		ClosingPosition:      closingPosition,
+		ClosingPosition:       closingPosition,
-		DailyPnL:             metrics.dailyPnL,
+		DailyPnL:              metrics.dailyPnL,
-		WeeklyPnL:            metrics.weeklyPnL,
+		WeeklyPnL:             metrics.weeklyPnL,
-		MonthlyDrawdownPct:   metrics.monthlyDrawdownPct,
+		MonthlyDrawdownPct:    metrics.monthlyDrawdownPct,
-		AvgSlippageBps10:     metrics.avgSlippageBps10,
+		AvgSlippageBps10:      metrics.avgSlippageBps10,
-		TradingStatus:        tradingStatus,
+		TradingStatus:         tradingStatus,
-		QuoteReceivedAt:      quoteReceivedAt,
+		QuoteReceivedAt:       quoteReceivedAt,
-		Now:                  now.UTC(),
+		Now:                   now.UTC(),
-		MarketClose:          s.preTradeDeadlineOn(now, closingPosition),
+		MarketClose:           s.preTradeDeadlineOn(now, closingPosition),
-		UnknownBrokerOrder:   unknownOrder,
+		ServerTimeUnavailable: serverTimeUnavailable,
-		UnknownBrokerHolding: unknownHolding,
+		ServerClockDrift:      serverClockDrift,
+		MaxClockDrift:         s.cfg.MaxClockDrift,
+		UnknownBrokerOrder:    unknownOrder,
+		UnknownBrokerHolding:  unknownHolding,
 	})
 	if !result.Allowed && isHardHaltPreTradeReason(result.Reason) {
 		if err := s.halt(ctx, result.Reason, fmt.Sprintf("pre-trade hard limit breached: %s", result.Reason), instrumentUID); err != nil {
@@ -1264,6 +1282,20 @@ func (s Scheduler) preTradeCheck(ctx context.Context, now time.Time, instrumentU
 	return result, nil
 }
 
+func (s Scheduler) preTradeClockDrift(ctx context.Context, now time.Time) (time.Duration, bool, error) {
+	if s.cfg.MaxClockDrift <= 0 || s.svc.Gateway == nil {
+		return 0, false, nil
+	}
+	serverTime, err := s.svc.Gateway.GetServerTime(ctx)
+	if err != nil {
+		if s.cfg.Mode == domain.ModePaper {
+			return 0, false, nil
+		}
+		return 0, true, nil
+	}
+	return timeutil.Drift(now.UTC(), serverTime), false, nil
+}
+
 func (s Scheduler) unknownBrokerState(ctx context.Context, portfolio domain.Portfolio) (bool, bool, error) {
 	if !s.cfg.Mode.AllowsBrokerOrders() {
 		return false, false, nil
@@ -1309,6 +1341,8 @@ func (s Scheduler) unknownBrokerState(ctx context.Context, portfolio domain.Port
 func isHardHaltPreTradeReason(reason string) bool {
 	switch reason {
 	case "database_unavailable",
+		"server_time_unavailable",
+		"server_clock_drift_too_high",
 		"unknown_broker_order",
 		"unknown_broker_position",
 		"trading_status_unknown_before_order",
@@ -1392,6 +1426,70 @@ func (s Scheduler) preTradeDeadlineOn(now time.Time, closingPosition bool) time.
 	return s.marketCloseOn(now)
 }
 
+func (s *Scheduler) handleLiveReadonlyAfterSizeReduction(ctx context.Context, tradeDate time.Time, averageError decimal.Decimal, count int, factor decimal.Decimal, emitRecommendation bool) error {
+	if s.cfg.Mode != domain.ModeLiveTrade {
+		return nil
+	}
+	previousAverage, previousCount, previousOK, err := s.averageExpectedErrorBpsWindow(ctx, tradeDate, sizeReductionWindowTrades, sizeReductionWindowTrades)
+	if err != nil {
+		return err
+	}
+	if previousOK && previousCount == sizeReductionWindowTrades && previousAverage.LessThan(decimal.NewFromInt(sizeReductionTriggerBps)) {
+		return s.activateLiveReadonly(ctx, averageError, count, previousAverage, previousCount, factor)
+	}
+	if !emitRecommendation {
+		return nil
+	}
+	return s.recommendLiveReadonlyAfterSizeReduction(ctx, averageError, count, factor)
+}
+
+func (s *Scheduler) activateLiveReadonly(ctx context.Context, averageError decimal.Decimal, count int, previousAverage decimal.Decimal, previousCount int, factor decimal.Decimal) error {
+	if s.cfg.Mode != domain.ModeLiveTrade {
+		return nil
+	}
+	if s.svc.Repo == nil {
+		return nil
+	}
+	state, halted, reason, err := s.svc.Repo.GetSystemState(ctx)
+	if err != nil {
+		return err
+	}
+	if halted || state == domain.StateHalted {
+		return nil
+	}
+	message := fmt.Sprintf(
+		"average expected_error_bps stayed below %d for two consecutive %d-trade windows; switching to live_readonly",
+		sizeReductionTriggerBps,
+		sizeReductionWindowTrades,
+	)
+	s.cfg.Mode = domain.ModeLiveReadonly
+	if s.svc.Execution != nil {
+		s.svc.Execution.SetMode(domain.ModeLiveReadonly)
+	}
+	s.sm = statemachine.New(s.svc.Repo, domain.ModeLiveReadonly)
+	contextJSON := fmt.Sprintf(
+		`{"average_expected_error_bps":%q,"trades":%d,"previous_average_expected_error_bps":%q,"previous_trades":%d,"size_factor":%q,"mode":%q}`,
+		averageError.String(),
+		count,
+		previousAverage.String(),
+		previousCount,
+		factor.String(),
+		domain.ModeLiveReadonly,
+	)
+	if err := s.svc.Repo.SaveSystemState(ctx, state, domain.ModeLiveReadonly, false, reason, contextJSON); err != nil {
+		return err
+	}
+	if s.svc.Notifier != nil {
+		_ = s.svc.Notifier.Alert(ctx, message)
+	}
+	return s.svc.Repo.InsertRiskEvent(ctx, domain.RiskEvent{
+		Severity:    domain.SeverityAlert,
+		EventType:   "live_readonly_activated",
+		Message:     message,
+		ContextJSON: contextJSON,
+	})
+}
+
 func (s Scheduler) recommendLiveReadonlyAfterSizeReduction(ctx context.Context, averageError decimal.Decimal, count int, factor decimal.Decimal) error {
 	if s.cfg.Mode != domain.ModeLiveTrade {
 		return nil

internal/scheduler/scheduler_test.go

@@ -564,6 +564,42 @@ func TestPreTradeDailyLossBreachHalts(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
+func TestPreTradeClockDriftBreachHalts(t *testing.T) {
+	ctx := context.Background()
+	repo := testutil.NewMemoryRepository()
+	now := time.Date(2026, 6, 8, 18, 20, 0, 0, time.UTC)
+	gateway := tinvest.NewFakeGateway()
+	gateway.ServerTime = now.Add(3 * time.Second)
+	notifier := &countNotifier{}
+	s := Scheduler{
+		cfg: Config{
+			Mode:          domain.ModePaper,
+			Location:      time.UTC,
+			MaxClockDrift: 2 * time.Second,
+		},
+		svc: Services{
+			Repo:          repo,
+			Gateway:       gateway,
+			Risk:          risk.NewManager(repo, risk.ManagerConfig{}),
+			Notifier:      notifier,
+			AccountIDHash: "hash",
+		},
+	}
+	_, err := s.preTradeCheck(ctx, now, "uid", domain.Portfolio{
+		Equity: decimal.NewFromInt(10000),
+		Cash:   decimal.NewFromInt(10000),
+	}, 0, false, domain.TradingStatusNormal, now)
+	if !errors.Is(err, statemachine.ErrSystemHalted) {
+		t.Fatalf("err=%v, want ErrSystemHalted", err)
+	}
+	if !repo.Halted || repo.HaltReason != "pre-trade hard limit breached: server_clock_drift_too_high" {
+		t.Fatalf("halted=%v reason=%q", repo.Halted, repo.HaltReason)
+	}
+	if notifier.alerts != 1 {
+		t.Fatalf("alerts=%d, want 1", notifier.alerts)
+	}
+}
+
 func TestPreTradeUsesPhaseDeadlineForMinTimeToClose(t *testing.T) {
 	ctx := context.Background()
 	repo := testutil.NewMemoryRepository()
@@ -812,6 +848,78 @@ func TestSizeReductionRuleRecommendsLiveReadonlyInLiveTrade(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
+func TestRepeatedSizeReductionRuleActivatesLiveReadonly(t *testing.T) {
+	ctx := context.Background()
+	repo := testutil.NewMemoryRepository()
+	notifier := &countNotifier{}
+	tradeDate := time.Date(2026, 6, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC)
+	for i := 0; i < sizeReductionWindowTrades*2; i++ {
+		date := tradeDate.AddDate(0, 0, -i)
+		if err := repo.UpsertSignal(ctx, domain.Signal{
+			TradeDate:     date,
+			InstrumentUID: "uid",
+			Decision:      domain.DecisionEnter,
+			NetEdgeBps:    decimal.NewFromInt(20),
+		}); err != nil {
+			t.Fatal(err)
+		}
+		if err := repo.UpsertPosition(ctx, domain.Position{
+			AccountIDHash:   "hash",
+			InstrumentUID:   "uid",
+			OpenTradeDate:   date,
+			Lot:             1,
+			Status:          domain.PositionExitFilled,
+			RealizedEdgeBps: decimal.Zero,
+			UpdatedAt:       date.Add(time.Hour),
+		}); err != nil {
+			t.Fatal(err)
+		}
+	}
+	execEngine := execution.NewEngine(domain.ModeLiveTrade, "account", nil, repo)
+	s := Scheduler{
+		cfg: Config{Mode: domain.ModeLiveTrade},
+		sm:  statemachine.New(repo, domain.ModeLiveTrade),
+		svc: Services{
+			Repo:          repo,
+			AccountIDHash: "hash",
+			Notifier:      notifier,
+			Execution:     &execEngine,
+			Sizer: risk.NewSizer(risk.SizingConfig{
+				MaxPositionPct:             decimal.NewFromInt(1),
+				MaxTotalExposurePct:        decimal.NewFromInt(1),
+				MaxParticipationRate:       decimal.NewFromInt(1),
+				CashUsageBuffer:            decimal.NewFromInt(1),
+				RiskBudgetPerInstrumentPct: decimal.NewFromInt(1),
+				MinOrderNotionalRUB:        decimal.NewFromInt(1),
+			}),
+		},
+	}
+	if err := s.applySizeReductionRule(ctx, tradeDate, true); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	if repo.Mode != domain.ModeLiveReadonly || s.cfg.Mode != domain.ModeLiveReadonly {
+		t.Fatalf("modes repo=%s scheduler=%s, want live_readonly", repo.Mode, s.cfg.Mode)
+	}
+	if len(repo.RiskEvents) != 2 || repo.RiskEvents[1].EventType != "live_readonly_activated" || repo.RiskEvents[1].Severity != domain.SeverityAlert {
+		t.Fatalf("risk events=%+v, want live_readonly activation alert", repo.RiskEvents)
+	}
+	if notifier.alerts != 1 {
+		t.Fatalf("alerts=%d, want 1", notifier.alerts)
+	}
+	_, err := execEngine.PlaceLimit(ctx, domain.Order{
+		ClientOrderID: "order",
+		InstrumentUID: "uid",
+		TradeDate:     tradeDate,
+		Side:          domain.SideBuy,
+		OrderType:     domain.OrderTypeLimit,
+		LimitPrice:    decimal.NewFromInt(100),
+		QuantityLots:  1,
+	})
+	if !errors.Is(err, execution.ErrBrokerOrdersDisabled) {
+		t.Fatalf("PlaceLimit err=%v, want ErrBrokerOrdersDisabled after live_readonly activation", err)
+	}
+}
+
 func TestBatchSignalLimitsCapSlotsAndExposure(t *testing.T) {
 	s := Scheduler{
 		cfg: Config{MaxOpenPositions: 5},