package backtest import ( "encoding/csv" "encoding/json" "fmt" "io" "os" "path/filepath" "sort" "time" "github.com/shopspring/decimal" "overnight-trading-bot/internal/domain" "overnight-trading-bot/internal/features" "overnight-trading-bot/internal/money" "overnight-trading-bot/internal/risk" ) type Config struct { EntrySlippageBps decimal.Decimal ExitSlippageBps decimal.Decimal CommissionRoundtripBps decimal.Decimal InitialEquity decimal.Decimal OutputDir string RollingShort int RollingLong int EWMALambda float64 MinTStat60 decimal.Decimal MinWinRate60 decimal.Decimal MinNetEdgeBps decimal.Decimal MinADVRUB decimal.Decimal MaxSpreadBps decimal.Decimal MaxTickBps decimal.Decimal RequireZeroCommission bool MaxPositions int MaxPositionPct decimal.Decimal MaxTotalExposurePct decimal.Decimal MaxParticipationRate decimal.Decimal CashUsageBuffer decimal.Decimal RiskBudgetPct decimal.Decimal MinOrderNotionalRUB decimal.Decimal AssumedSpreadBps decimal.Decimal AssumedTickBps decimal.Decimal Lot int64 UseMinuteModel bool } type Trade struct { InstrumentUID string `json:"instrument_uid"` EntryDate string `json:"entry_date"` ExitDate string `json:"exit_date"` BuyPrice decimal.Decimal `json:"buy_price"` SellPrice decimal.Decimal `json:"sell_price"` Return decimal.Decimal `json:"return"` Lots int64 `json:"lots"` Notional decimal.Decimal `json:"notional"` NetPnL decimal.Decimal `json:"net_pnl"` SpreadBps decimal.Decimal `json:"spread_bps"` SlippageBps decimal.Decimal `json:"slippage_bps"` OvernightGap decimal.Decimal `json:"overnight_gap"` CapacityRUB decimal.Decimal `json:"capacity_rub"` } type Result struct { Metrics Metrics `json:"metrics"` Trades []Trade `json:"trades"` Equity []Point `json:"equity"` } type Point struct { Date string `json:"date"` Equity decimal.Decimal `json:"equity"` Return decimal.Decimal `json:"return"` } type Engine struct { cfg Config } func New(cfg Config) Engine { cfg = cfg.withDefaults() return Engine{cfg: cfg} } func (cfg Config) withDefaults() Config { if cfg.InitialEquity.IsZero() { cfg.InitialEquity = decimal.NewFromInt(100_000) } if cfg.RollingShort == 0 { cfg.RollingShort = 60 } if cfg.RollingLong == 0 { cfg.RollingLong = 252 } if cfg.EWMALambda == 0 { cfg.EWMALambda = 0.08 } if cfg.MinTStat60.IsZero() { cfg.MinTStat60 = decimal.NewFromFloat(1.25) } if cfg.MinWinRate60.IsZero() { cfg.MinWinRate60 = decimal.NewFromFloat(0.55) } if cfg.MinNetEdgeBps.IsZero() { cfg.MinNetEdgeBps = decimal.NewFromInt(10) } if cfg.MinADVRUB.IsZero() { cfg.MinADVRUB = decimal.NewFromInt(5_000_000) } if cfg.MaxSpreadBps.IsZero() { cfg.MaxSpreadBps = decimal.NewFromInt(20) } if cfg.MaxTickBps.IsZero() { cfg.MaxTickBps = decimal.NewFromInt(10) } if !cfg.RequireZeroCommission && cfg.CommissionRoundtripBps.IsZero() { cfg.RequireZeroCommission = true } if cfg.MaxPositions == 0 { cfg.MaxPositions = 5 } if cfg.MaxPositionPct.IsZero() { cfg.MaxPositionPct = decimal.NewFromFloat(0.10) } if cfg.MaxTotalExposurePct.IsZero() { cfg.MaxTotalExposurePct = decimal.NewFromFloat(0.50) } if cfg.MaxParticipationRate.IsZero() { cfg.MaxParticipationRate = decimal.NewFromFloat(0.01) } if cfg.CashUsageBuffer.IsZero() { cfg.CashUsageBuffer = decimal.NewFromFloat(0.95) } if cfg.RiskBudgetPct.IsZero() { cfg.RiskBudgetPct = decimal.NewFromFloat(0.005) } if cfg.MinOrderNotionalRUB.IsZero() { cfg.MinOrderNotionalRUB = decimal.NewFromInt(1000) } if cfg.Lot == 0 { cfg.Lot = 1 } return cfg } func (e Engine) Run(candlesByInstrument map[string][]domain.Candle) (Result, error) { return e.RunWithMinuteCandles(candlesByInstrument, nil) } func (e Engine) RunWithMinuteCandles(candlesByInstrument map[string][]domain.Candle, minuteCandlesByInstrument map[string][]domain.Candle) (Result, error) { prepared := prepareCandles(candlesByInstrument) preparedMinutes := prepareCandles(minuteCandlesByInstrument) candidatesByExitDate := make(map[string][]candidate) for instrumentUID, candles := range prepared { for i := 1; i < len(candles); i++ { candidate, ok, err := e.evaluateCandidate(instrumentUID, candles, i) if err != nil { return Result{}, err } if ok { candidatesByExitDate[candidate.exit.TradeDate.Format("2006-01-02")] = append(candidatesByExitDate[candidate.exit.TradeDate.Format("2006-01-02")], candidate) } } } dates := make([]string, 0, len(candidatesByExitDate)) for date := range candidatesByExitDate { dates = append(dates, date) } sort.Strings(dates) equity := e.cfg.InitialEquity cash := e.cfg.InitialEquity var trades []Trade points := []Point{{Date: "START", Equity: equity}} sizer := risk.NewSizer(risk.SizingConfig{ MaxPositionPct: e.cfg.MaxPositionPct, MaxTotalExposurePct: e.cfg.MaxTotalExposurePct, MaxParticipationRate: e.cfg.MaxParticipationRate, CashUsageBuffer: e.cfg.CashUsageBuffer, RiskBudgetPerInstrumentPct: e.cfg.RiskBudgetPct, MinOrderNotionalRUB: e.cfg.MinOrderNotionalRUB, }) for _, date := range dates { dayCandidates := candidatesByExitDate[date] sort.Slice(dayCandidates, func(i, j int) bool { if dayCandidates[i].netEdge.Equal(dayCandidates[j].netEdge) { return dayCandidates[i].instrumentUID < dayCandidates[j].instrumentUID } return dayCandidates[i].netEdge.GreaterThan(dayCandidates[j].netEdge) }) if len(dayCandidates) > e.cfg.MaxPositions { dayCandidates = dayCandidates[:e.cfg.MaxPositions] } dayStartEquity := equity dayPnL := decimal.Zero for _, c := range dayCandidates { sized := sizer.Size(risk.SizingInput{ Portfolio: domain.Portfolio{Equity: equity, Cash: cash}, SelectedInstruments: len(dayCandidates), LimitPrice: c.buy, Lot: e.cfg.Lot, EntryIntervalVolume: c.adv, ExitIntervalVolume: c.adv, Q05OvernightAbs: c.q05Abs, }) if sized.Lots <= 0 { continue } lots := sized.Lots capacity := c.capacity if e.cfg.UseMinuteModel { executedLots, minuteCapacity, ok := e.minuteExecution(c, preparedMinutes[c.instrumentUID], sized.Lots) if !ok { continue } lots = executedLots capacity = minuteCapacity } notional := c.buy.Mul(decimal.NewFromInt(lots)).Mul(decimal.NewFromInt(e.cfg.Lot)) ret := c.sell.Div(c.buy).Sub(decimal.NewFromInt(1)).Sub(money.FromBps(e.cfg.CommissionRoundtripBps)) pnl := notional.Mul(ret) dayPnL = dayPnL.Add(pnl) cash = cash.Sub(notional) trades = append(trades, Trade{ InstrumentUID: c.instrumentUID, EntryDate: c.entry.TradeDate.Format("2006-01-02"), ExitDate: c.exit.TradeDate.Format("2006-01-02"), BuyPrice: c.buy, SellPrice: c.sell, Return: ret, Lots: lots, Notional: notional, NetPnL: pnl, SpreadBps: e.cfg.AssumedSpreadBps, SlippageBps: e.cfg.EntrySlippageBps.Add(e.cfg.ExitSlippageBps), OvernightGap: c.overnightGap, CapacityRUB: capacity, }) } if !dayPnL.IsZero() { equity = equity.Add(dayPnL) cash = equity points = append(points, Point{ Date: date, Equity: equity, Return: dayPnL.Div(dayStartEquity), }) } } sort.Slice(trades, func(i, j int) bool { if trades[i].ExitDate == trades[j].ExitDate { return trades[i].InstrumentUID < trades[j].InstrumentUID } return trades[i].ExitDate < trades[j].ExitDate }) return Result{ Metrics: ComputeMetrics(points, trades), Trades: trades, Equity: points, }, nil } func (e Engine) minuteExecution(c candidate, minutes []domain.Candle, requestedLots int64) (int64, decimal.Decimal, bool) { if requestedLots <= 0 || len(minutes) == 0 { return 0, decimal.Zero, false } entryLots, entryCapacity := e.fillableMinuteLots(minutes, c.entry.TradeDate, c.buy, domain.SideBuy) exitLots, exitCapacity := e.fillableMinuteLots(minutes, c.exit.TradeDate, c.sell, domain.SideSell) lots := min(requestedLots, entryLots) lots = min(lots, exitLots) if lots <= 0 { return 0, decimal.Zero, false } return lots, money.Min(entryCapacity, exitCapacity), true } func (e Engine) fillableMinuteLots(minutes []domain.Candle, date time.Time, limitPrice decimal.Decimal, side domain.Side) (int64, decimal.Decimal) { if !limitPrice.IsPositive() || e.cfg.Lot <= 0 { return 0, decimal.Zero } lotNotional := limitPrice.Mul(decimal.NewFromInt(e.cfg.Lot)) if !lotNotional.IsPositive() { return 0, decimal.Zero } capacity := decimal.Zero for _, candle := range minutes { if !sameDate(candle.TradeDate, date) { continue } reachable := side == domain.SideBuy && candle.Low.LessThanOrEqual(limitPrice) reachable = reachable || side == domain.SideSell && candle.High.GreaterThanOrEqual(limitPrice) if !reachable { continue } minuteCapacity := candle.VolumeLots.Mul(lotNotional).Mul(e.cfg.MaxParticipationRate) capacity = capacity.Add(minuteCapacity) } return capacity.Div(lotNotional).Floor().IntPart(), capacity } type candidate struct { instrumentUID string entry domain.Candle exit domain.Candle buy decimal.Decimal sell decimal.Decimal netEdge decimal.Decimal adv decimal.Decimal q05Abs decimal.Decimal overnightGap decimal.Decimal capacity decimal.Decimal } func (e Engine) evaluateCandidate(instrumentUID string, candles []domain.Candle, exitIndex int) (candidate, bool, error) { if exitIndex < e.cfg.RollingShort || exitIndex <= 0 { return candidate{}, false, nil } history := candles[:exitIndex] returns := make([]float64, 0, len(history)-1) for j := 1; j < len(history); j++ { r, err := features.OvernightReturn(history[j].Open, history[j-1].Close) if err != nil { return candidate{}, false, err } rf, _ := r.Float64() returns = append(returns, rf) } short := features.Rolling(returns, e.cfg.RollingShort, e.cfg.EWMALambda) long := features.Rolling(returns, min(e.cfg.RollingLong, len(returns)), e.cfg.EWMALambda) if !short.Available || !long.Available || short.StdDev == 0 { return candidate{}, false, nil } rawEdge := decimal.NewFromFloat(short.Mean).Mul(decimal.NewFromInt(10_000)) cost := e.cfg.AssumedSpreadBps. Add(e.cfg.EntrySlippageBps). Add(e.cfg.ExitSlippageBps). Add(e.cfg.CommissionRoundtripBps) netEdge := rawEdge.Sub(cost) adv := features.ADV(history, e.cfg.Lot, 20) switch { case e.cfg.RequireZeroCommission && e.cfg.CommissionRoundtripBps.IsPositive(): return candidate{}, false, nil case !decimal.NewFromFloat(short.Mean).IsPositive() || !decimal.NewFromFloat(long.Mean).IsPositive(): return candidate{}, false, nil case decimal.NewFromFloat(short.TStat).LessThan(e.cfg.MinTStat60): return candidate{}, false, nil case decimal.NewFromFloat(short.WinRate).LessThan(e.cfg.MinWinRate60): return candidate{}, false, nil case netEdge.LessThan(e.cfg.MinNetEdgeBps): return candidate{}, false, nil case e.cfg.AssumedSpreadBps.GreaterThan(e.cfg.MaxSpreadBps): return candidate{}, false, nil case e.cfg.AssumedTickBps.GreaterThan(e.cfg.MaxTickBps): return candidate{}, false, nil case adv.LessThan(e.cfg.MinADVRUB): return candidate{}, false, nil } entry := candles[exitIndex-1] exit := candles[exitIndex] buy := entry.Close.Mul(decimal.NewFromInt(1).Add(money.FromBps(e.cfg.EntrySlippageBps))) sell := exit.Open.Mul(decimal.NewFromInt(1).Sub(money.FromBps(e.cfg.ExitSlippageBps))) gap, err := features.OvernightReturn(exit.Open, entry.Close) if err != nil { return candidate{}, false, err } q05Abs := decimal.NewFromFloat(features.Quantile(returns, 0.05)) if q05Abs.IsNegative() { q05Abs = q05Abs.Neg() } return candidate{ instrumentUID: instrumentUID, entry: entry, exit: exit, buy: buy, sell: sell, netEdge: netEdge, adv: adv, q05Abs: q05Abs, overnightGap: gap, capacity: adv.Mul(e.cfg.MaxParticipationRate), }, true, nil } func prepareCandles(candlesByInstrument map[string][]domain.Candle) map[string][]domain.Candle { prepared := make(map[string][]domain.Candle, len(candlesByInstrument)) for instrumentUID, candles := range candlesByInstrument { cp := append([]domain.Candle(nil), candles...) sort.Slice(cp, func(i, j int) bool { return cp[i].TradeDate.Before(cp[j].TradeDate) }) prepared[instrumentUID] = cp } return prepared } func (r Result) Write(outputDir string) error { if outputDir == "" { outputDir = "./backtest_out" } if err := os.MkdirAll(outputDir, 0o750); err != nil { return err } summary, err := json.MarshalIndent(r.Metrics, "", " ") if err != nil { return err } if err := os.WriteFile(filepath.Join(outputDir, "summary.json"), summary, 0o600); err != nil { return err } if err := writeTrades(filepath.Join(outputDir, "trades.csv"), r.Trades); err != nil { return err } return writeEquity(filepath.Join(outputDir, "equity.csv"), r.Equity) } func LoadCandlesCSV(reader io.Reader) (map[string][]domain.Candle, error) { r := csv.NewReader(reader) r.FieldsPerRecord = -1 records, err := r.ReadAll() if err != nil { return nil, err } out := make(map[string][]domain.Candle) for i, record := range records { if i == 0 && len(record) > 0 && record[0] == "instrument_uid" { continue } if len(record) < 7 { return nil, fmt.Errorf("line %d: expected 7 fields", i+1) } date, err := parseCandleTime(record[1]) if err != nil { return nil, err } open, err := decimal.NewFromString(record[2]) if err != nil { return nil, err } high, err := decimal.NewFromString(record[3]) if err != nil { return nil, err } low, err := decimal.NewFromString(record[4]) if err != nil { return nil, err } closePrice, err := decimal.NewFromString(record[5]) if err != nil { return nil, err } volume, err := decimal.NewFromString(record[6]) if err != nil { return nil, err } candle := domain.Candle{ InstrumentUID: record[0], TradeDate: date, Open: open, High: high, Low: low, Close: closePrice, VolumeLots: volume, Source: "csv", LoadedAt: time.Now().UTC(), } out[candle.InstrumentUID] = append(out[candle.InstrumentUID], candle) } return out, nil } func parseCandleTime(raw string) (time.Time, error) { layouts := []string{ time.RFC3339, "2006-01-02 15:04:05", "2006-01-02T15:04:05", "2006-01-02", } var lastErr error for _, layout := range layouts { parsed, err := time.Parse(layout, raw) if err == nil { return parsed.UTC(), nil } lastErr = err } return time.Time{}, lastErr } func sameDate(a, b time.Time) bool { return dateOnly(a).Equal(dateOnly(b)) } func dateOnly(t time.Time) time.Time { y, m, d := t.UTC().Date() return time.Date(y, m, d, 0, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC) } func writeTrades(path string, trades []Trade) error { // #nosec G304 -- path is the user-selected backtest output destination. f, err := os.Create(path) if err != nil { return err } defer func() { _ = f.Close() }() w := csv.NewWriter(f) defer w.Flush() if err := w.Write([]string{"instrument_uid", "entry_date", "exit_date", "buy_price", "sell_price", "return", "lots", "notional", "net_pnl", "spread_bps", "slippage_bps", "overnight_gap", "capacity_rub"}); err != nil { return err } for _, trade := range trades { if err := w.Write([]string{ trade.InstrumentUID, trade.EntryDate, trade.ExitDate, trade.BuyPrice.String(), trade.SellPrice.String(), trade.Return.String(), fmt.Sprintf("%d", trade.Lots), trade.Notional.String(), trade.NetPnL.String(), trade.SpreadBps.String(), trade.SlippageBps.String(), trade.OvernightGap.String(), trade.CapacityRUB.String(), }); err != nil { return err } } return w.Error() } func writeEquity(path string, points []Point) error { // #nosec G304 -- path is the user-selected backtest output destination. f, err := os.Create(path) if err != nil { return err } defer func() { _ = f.Close() }() w := csv.NewWriter(f) defer w.Flush() if err := w.Write([]string{"date", "equity", "return"}); err != nil { return err } for _, point := range points { if err := w.Write([]string{point.Date, point.Equity.String(), point.Return.String()}); err != nil { return err } } return w.Error() } func ParseDecimalFlag(raw string) (decimal.Decimal, error) { if raw == "" { return decimal.Zero, nil } return decimal.NewFromString(raw) }